Stellantis has officially discontinued its development of hydrogen fuel cell technology and will halt the production of its hydrogen-powered Pro One vehicles. Market analysis by IDTechEx suggests that light commercial vehicles are not a strong fit for fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) technology. This raises questions about the future of FCEVs globally, as IDTechEx Analyst John Li reviews the industry’s recent developments.
Light-duty FCEVs have struggled in H1 2025
In its announcement, Stellantis stated that it does not expect adoption of hydrogen-powered light commercial vehicles before the end of the decade. With Stellantis out of the picture, the prospects for fuel cell light commercial vehicles have worsened. Renault could still potentially release its Master H2-Tech hydrogen van in Europe this year, with a WLTP range of 700km. However, the liquidation of its joint venture with Plug, known as Hyvia, which was established to create a hydrogen mobility ecosystem, has raised doubts about this.
In February 2025, Renault’s then CEO, Luca de Meo, stated that Renault was selling its hydrogen vans at a loss. Aside from this, Toyota has deployed FCEVs, including light commercial vehicles, to Fukuoka, a city in Japan. Originally signed in 2022, FCEV light commercial vehicles have been used for various applications, including meal delivery and ambulance services.
From IDTechEx’s analysis, light commercial vehicles are unlikely to be a competitive market for FCEVs. Unlike heavy-duty vehicles such as trucks and buses, lower charging powers are needed to charge a vehicle. With a daily mileage rarely exceeding 100 miles (160km), depending on application, the requirements for light-commercial vehicles are easily achieved with battery electric technology.
Fuel cell passenger cars are still a rare sight on our roads today, although market activity continues in the background. The Hyundai Nexo got its first update this year since its initial launch in 2018. Among other things, it has increased hydrogen storage and range, as well as a route planner showing available hydrogen refuelling. The Honda CR-V and Toyota Mirai continue to sell in modest numbers, primarily in Japan, Korea, and the US. BMW has maintained its firm position on entering the FCEV passenger car market in 2028.
With the continued investment by these large OEMs, it’s still not impossible that the FCEV passenger car market grows in the coming years. IDTechEx forecasts modest growth in the FCEV passenger car market, reaching approximately 500,000 annual sales by 2045.
Heavy-duty FCEVs continue to move, but slowly
On that note, fuel cell buses, although less common than battery-electric buses, have continued to gain market activity. IDTechEx learned at the Hydrogen Technology Expo North America that Hyundai plans to release its fuel cell bus to the US market. For Q1 2025, major fuel cell supplier Ballard reported an approximately 40% increase in revenue for bus applications.
Recent deployments in California (Xcelsior) and Germany (Solaris) are powered by Ballard’s fuel cell technology. According to IDTechEx’s analysis, federal-level investment in fuel cell buses and related infrastructure in the US has exceeded $ 270 million as of July 2025. A combination of this support, along with the fact that almost all buses operate as a fleet, has yielded some progress in the fuel cell bus market this year.
According to IDTechEx’s analysis, heavy-duty, long-haul trucking is still the best use case for fuel cell trucks. There has been some uncertainty after the high-profile bankruptcy of Nikola Motors earlier this year. However, Hyundai, Toyota, and Honda continue to operate fuel cell trucks. Hyundai has delivered over 3,000 fuel cell trucks across 14 countries. Toyota uses fuel cell trucks for its own logistics, while Honda’s fuel cell truck, in collaboration with Isuzu, is still slated for a 2027 release.
The Chinese market remains the leading region for fuel cell trucks, with almost 500 sold in the first quarter of 2025. These are mostly concentrated in regions with hydrogen mobility demonstrations and pilots.
In Q1 2025, five provinces in China deployed more than 50 fuel cell trucks. In this case, these deployments are only possible due to access to available hydrogen refuelling. The lack of market demand, compounded by the scarcity of available refuelling, was cited as a key reason for Stellantis’ cessation of fuel cell vehicle development.
IDTechEx’s conclusions and outlook
In a year of uncertainty, fuel cell vehicles have continued to survive to the halfway mark. While Stellantis has pulled out, Hyvia (a joint venture between Renault and Plug) has liquidated, and Nikola has gone bankrupt this year, projects continue to start up for a wider hydrogen economy.
Should these projects succeed, the opportunity for FCEVs could be significant, especially given the Li-ion battery market’s continued dominance by Chinese players and the recent bankruptcy of battery producer Northvolt.
It is possible that with established hydrogen refuelling infrastructure, as detailed for example in the EU’s Alternative Fuels Infrastructure regulation (deadline 2030), could result in OEMs re-assessing and re-entering the FCEV market.
Granular forecasts split by vehicle segment and region, as well as technical and market analysis, are available in IDTechEx’s report: Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles 2025-2045: Markets, Technologies, Forecasts.
